English Arabic Armenian Azerbaijani Chinese (Simplified) Chinese (Traditional) Czech Danish Dutch Estonian Filipino Finnish French Galician Georgian German Greek Hindi Hungarian Icelandic Indonesian Italian Japanese Korean Latvian Lithuanian Malay Maltese Norwegian Persian Polish Portuguese Russian Slovak Slovenian Spanish Swedish Thai Turkish Ukrainian Vietnamese

Britain’s Brexit bill could be US$84 billion

LONDON: September 19, 2016. According to the Centre for European Reform (CER), a respected nonprofit think-tank, replacing EU single market membership with a bilateral trade agreement will cost Britain between 0.75 and 3.0 percent of GDP.

According to the World Bank, the UK's GDP last year was US$2.84 trillion in current dollars, so the Brexit cost could range from US$21 billion to US$84 billion.

The CER notes that Brexit "is not an event but a process of disintegration. As long as there is no sudden crisis, Brexit voters will believe that its absence justifies their decision".

BREXITJohn Springford, a senior Research Fellow at the CER, said he expects a single market exit will be costly for British firms with their comparative advantage in high-value added services that rely on single market principles of non-discrimination and freedom of establishment.

He noted any new free trade agreement that includes UK-EU institutions to enforce regulatory equivalence will look "remarkably like" the Swiss deal with the EU, in which joint committees ensure that Swiss legislation accords with EU law.

However the Swiss arrangement only provides access for goods with the service sector largely excluded. "And for that, the Swiss have been forced to accept the free movement of people," he noted.

The CER thinks the EU is unlikely to give Britain better access than Switzerland to its  goods and services markets without an agreement on 
free movement or EU budget contributions.

This week UK prime minister Theresa May said the British people "do not want free movement to continue as it has in the past".

The CER thinks the long-term economic consequences of the Brexit vote are very likely to be negative – but they won't manifest in a slower rate of growth before barriers to trade, investment and migration have risen, which it says may be in 2019.

"And without acute economic pain that is clearly attributable to Brexit, Britain's politicians will find it impossible to defy the electorate's demand to 'take back control', whatever the chronic damage to the economy," added Springford.

The CER says it is pro-European but admits in "many respects" the EU doesn't work well.

News

Written on 26/05/2017, 16:16
powerful-future-ahead-for-madagascarPORT LOUIS, Mauritius. May 24, 2017. Volga-Dnepr Airlines has now completed a series of flights begun in March to deliver power generators from Mauritius...
Written on 25/05/2017, 20:07
rhinos-return-to-rwandaAKAGERA, Rwanda: May 25, 2017. Ten years after the Eastern black rhino disappeared from Rwanda following decades of poaching, 19 animals have now taken up...
Written on 25/05/2017, 18:33
port-everglades-gets-expansion-go-aheadPORT EVERGLADES, FL: May 24, 2017. Port Everglades is to invest US$437.5 million to add new berths for larger cargo vessels and install crane rail...
Written on 24/05/2017, 20:42
hapag-lloyd-takes-a-big-step-with-uascHAMBURG: May 24, 2017. Hapag-Lloyd and the United Arab Shipping Company (UASC) have completed their merger. Shareholders at the annual general meeting on...
Written on 23/05/2017, 21:03
dhl-adds-rail-link-between-shenzhen-and-belarusSHENZHEN: May 22, 2017. DHL Global Forwarding has launched the first regular LCL and FCL rail service that connects Shenzhen to Minsk in Belarus in less...
Written on 22/05/2017, 19:48
cathay-pacific-launches-restructuring-with-layoffsHONG KONG: May 22, 2017. Cathay Pacific is making 600 head office staff redundant following the announcement in March of a three-year business...
Written on 18/05/2017, 21:59
air-zimbabwe-banned-from-europeBRUSSELS: May 17, 2017. In an update to its Air Safety List, the European Commission has banned Air Zimbabwe from flying to the 28 EU Member States "due...
Written on 17/05/2017, 22:43
russian-logistics-network-signs-development-agreementMUNICH: May 17, 2017. Meeting at the transport logistic trade fair last week, members of Russia's Associated Cargo Experts Alliance (ACEX) and the...
Written on 17/05/2017, 19:41
oman-to-adopt-tir-conventionMUSCAT: May 17, 2017. The International Road Transport Union (IRU) is to support the Oman Global Logistics Group (OGLG) in developing Oman as a major...
Written on 15/05/2017, 21:56
record-port-call-for-savannahSAVANNAH, GA: MAY 15, 2017. COSCO Development, at 13,000 TEU the largest box ship to call at an U.S. East Coast port, moved a record 10,000 containers...
Written on 11/05/2017, 14:24
lufthansa-cargo-still-caring-for-humansMUNICH: May 10, 2017. Lufthansa Cargo has celebrated the 10th anniversary of its employee-inspired humanitarian logistics program Cargo Human Care (CHC)...
Written on 10/05/2017, 20:34
renewed-b-logistics-rebrands-as-lineasMUNICH: May 10, 2017. Less than two weeks after it re-launched itself as Lineas, rail logistics company B Logistics has come to transport logistic in...
Written on 09/05/2017, 21:52
cranes-get-a-lift-from-hansaHAMBURG: May 09, 2017 – Hansa Heavy Lift (HHL) has moved two 870 tonnes cranes from a decommissioned power station at London's port of Tilbury to...
Written on 09/05/2017, 18:49
ups-to-handle-dubai-expo-logisticsDUBAI: May 09, 2017. UPS is to sponsor the logistics for World Expo 2020 Dubai, to be held between October 2020 and April 2021. The company has also...
Written on 09/05/2017, 16:51
cargolux-carrier-of-choice-emirates-skycargoMUNICH: May 09, 2017. Emirates SkyCargo and Cargolux are to share aircraft capacity, networks and respective hubs in Dubai and Luxembourg in a new...
Written on 05/05/2017, 20:30
new-multipurpose-service-links-u-s-and-mediterraneanLEER, Germany: May 03, 2017. Multipurpose vessel operator BBC Chartering is adding ocean capacity between the Mediterranean and the US- East Coast, with...
Written on 04/05/2017, 20:42
royal-schiphol-group-costs-klm-millions-claimAMSTERDAM: May 04, 2017. KLM reported Q1 2017 revenue of €2.2 billion - a 3.3 percent rise over the same period last year. EBITDA increased €14 million to...
Written on 04/05/2017, 19:06
bmw-to-increase-rail-link-to-chinaMUNICH: May 03. China's news agency Xinhua reports BMW plans to increase its use of 'Silk Road' rail networks to ship components from Europe. According...
Written on 03/05/2017, 20:21
ethiopian-provides-support-for-drought-reliefTOULOUSE: May 02, 2017. German NGO humedica e.V and UK non-profit Aviation without Borders have used an Ethiopian Airlines A350 XWB delivery flight to...
Written on 28/04/2017, 19:13
amazon-3rd-party-fulfillment-revenue-up-34-percentSEATTLE: April 28, 2017. Amazon has reported net income of US$724 million on sales of US$35.71 billion for the first quarter of 2017. Results for the...

- powered by Quickchilli.com -