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DHL GTB Q2 2018BONN: June 27, 2018. DHL’s latest Global Trade Barometer (GTB) for Q2 2018 says the UK has the least favourable trade outlook with a drop of four points since March to 57.

With the overall index now at 67, DHL predicts global trade growth will continue to accelerate over the next three months despite US trade disputes.

A value above 50 signals a positive growth forecast.

The rise in the overall index was primarily driven by a slight increase in containerized ocean freight to a value of 64 points (March: 63) while the index for airtrade remained unchanged at 70 points.

The DHL/Accenture GTB says the improvement was mainly driven by more optimism in China and South Korea and a “slightly improved” trade forecast for the US.

However the positive impact by these countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and the UK.

Despite a strong decline by five points in the outlook for India, the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with 79 points.

Germany’s three-point increase in airtrade during the quarter was slightly offset by a one-point drop in ocean volumes to produce an unchanged index value of 64.

For individual sectors, DHL says the outlook for Machinery Parts and Components improved most, followed by Consumer Goods and High Tech. All industries continue to have a positive trade outlook except Basic Raw Materials for which the GTB predicts a significant decline in global trade.

Launched in January 2018 the GTB provides an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.

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