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AMSTERDAM: June 01, 2018. Coincident with improved IATA air cargo data for April, WorldACD reports worldwide air cargo yield rose 2.0 percent between March and April to reach US$1.93 - 16 percent higher than the same month last year. The industry analyst cites high-tech and pharma traffic as the principal cause:

“As we said last month, the first three months of 2018 should be viewed together rather than individually, given the 'monthly distortion' effect of the timing of Chinese New Year. Therefore, a month-over-month comparison between April and March 2018 makes little sense. The YoY growth of 4.0 percent in April should rather be seen against the backdrop of the 4.8 percent growth in Q1 and the strong growth we saw last year in general.

“Seen in that light, the 4.0 percent increase in April, though lower than in Q1, still points to serious business growth in air cargo.

“Of the Top 20 markets in the world, eight performed better than the worldwide average of 4.0 percent, 12 remained below the 4.0 percent growth. But the spread was large:

“The origin Africa contracted again (-2.1 percent YoY), albeit less than in Q1; but the origins North America (+8.6 percent YoY) and Central & South America (+10.5 percent) continued to dominate the growth tables. Argentina deserves special mention this month with outgoing business 26.5 percent growth YoY, largely thanks to more than doubling its business to Europe, while incoming business [grew] 30.9 percent due to a large increase in volumes from North America.

“So far, 2018 tells us the following:

"Average distance is still growing but at a lower pace and DTK (Direct Ton Kilometers) increased 5.6 percent against an increase of 4.6 percent in kilograms. This means the average distance per shipment flown continues to grow (but by a smaller percentage than a year ago).

"Pharmaceutical products & high-tech remain growth engines for specialised cargo with pharma transport increasing 17 percent YoY and high-tech up 11 percent. Perishables, the largest volume in this category, grew less than average (4.0 percent).

"Different regions show (very) different growth patterns: Asia Pacific, the largest origin area, grows less than average YoY (3.7 percent vs. 4.6 percent), with larger business growth to Europe +4.8 percent) and much less growth to North America (2.1 percent).

“The same goes for Europe, the No. 2 origin area (3.5 percent YoY), but there the growth is mainly to North America (4.6 percent), and much less to Asia Pacific (+1.4 percent).

“North America, the third largest origin area, shows a large YoY growth of 8.0 percent, mainly thanks to a similar percentage growth to both Asia Pacific and Europe.

“Among these areas, Europe showed the largest growth in incoming business (+6.8 percent), whilst imports into Asia Pacific and North America remained below the worldwide average at 4.6 percent.

“With the exception of growing transatlantic business from Europe, could it be that all these trends are nicely in line with economic theory? After all, the US$ has been relatively cheap in this period and the Euro relatively expensive. One would thus expect North America to export more, and Europe to import more. With the surge of the US$ since early May, we may well be able to already ‘test’ this position in one month's time, when the May-results will be in.”

WorldACD Air Cargo Market Data April 2018

 

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