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AMSTERDAM: It is now a decade since the air cargo industry had its last high point before the financial crisis hit the following year. Analyst World ACD says worldwide volume growth in the past 10 years has totaled 31 percent - despite year-on-year volume falls as high as 40 percent in 2009 - for an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 2.7 percent.

The big inter-regional markets produced the following AAGR results:

  • Asia Pacific to Europe: +20 percent (1.8 percent)
    Europe to Asia Pacific: +80 percent (6.0 percent)
  • North America to Europe: +9.0 (0.9 percent)
    Europe to North America: +46 percent (3.8 percent)
  • Asia Pacific to North America: +39 percent (3.4 percent)
    North America to Asia Pacific: +46 percent (3.8 percent)
  • Europe to Middle East & South Asia: +60 percent (4.8 percent)
    Middle East & South Asia to Europe: +36 percent (3.2 percent)

Percentage growth of top origin country in each of six regions by AAGR:

  • Vietnam: +275 percent (14.1 percent)
  • Ethiopia: +151 percent (9.6 percent)
  • Sri Lanka: +133 percent (8.8 percent)
  • Norway: +118 percent (8.1 percent)
  • Mexico: +82 percent (6.2 percent)
  • Ecuador: +65 percent (5.2 percent)

AAGR percentage growth of top destination country in each of six regions:

  • Vietnam: +194 percent (11.4 percent)
  • Qatar: +163 percent (10.2 percent)
  • Mexico: +87 percent (6.5 percent)
  • Russia: +71 percent (5.5 percent)
  • Kenya: +57 percent (4.6 percent)
  • Brazil: +37 percent (3.2 percent)

“July became the second month in row that saw minimal worldwide growth as volumes grew just 0.5 percent year-on-year and 0.8 percent in Direct Tonne-Kilometres.

“The yield dropped slightly to US$1.88, 0.6 percent lower than in June, but still 12.2 percent higher than in July 2017. Measured in €, the yield fell 2.2 percent month-over-month while it increased 10.5 percent year-on-year.

“When DTK's grow more than volume, that means that cargo has shifted to longer haul markets. Thus, given the tiny difference of 0.3 percent, the average distance between origin and final destination of July shipments hardly. Actually, the DTK trend since January 2018 shows that the average distance between origin and destination still grows, but much less so than in previous years.

“And although very difficult to quantify, the technical problems the Japanese carrier NCA has faced over the summer have most likely negatively influenced growth figures for June and July.

“Volumes from origin points in Africa and Europe contracted 8.3 percent and 1.3 percent respectively in July as Latin America kept growing (+9.5 percent), while MESA and Europe destinations were the only ones showing more than 1.0 percent growth.

“So far this year, Latin America is the fastest growing origin region (+11.6 percent) and Europe the fastest growing destination (+5.6 percent). Volume growth for the first seven months was 3.3 percent, while DTK growth declined to 4.1 percent year-on-year.

“In the same period the weight of the average shipment increased by 1.9 percent. Looking at the so-called 'weight breaks' (0-50 kg, 50-300 kg, 300-500 kg), the number of shipments above 1000 kg grew much faster (+4.8 percent) than the number of shipments in the smaller weight breaks with growth varying between -0.9 percent and +2.0 percent.

“Could this stronger growth, particularly from Asia Pacific, be caused by an increase in consolidated e-commerce shipments? After all, it is not only Integrators who move e-business across the globe.

“The percentage of year-on-year yield growth in US$ depended on the weight breaks: the smaller the weight, the smaller the yield growth. Shipments over 1000 kgs saw larger yield increases (+17 percent) than smaller shipments (growth increasing from 9.0 for 0-50 kg to 14 percent for 500-1000kg).

“However the increase in fuel prices may well play a role here as the increase in absolute fuel cost, when factored in as a percentage of total yield change, weighs more heavily on the lower yielding, larger shipments.”




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